Friday, January 13, 2012

Year of the Dragon

If I was in project development I'd be heading over to China. I think it's going to be the largest market for photoelectrics this year and for many years to come. We've seen the development booms over and over again - Spain, Czech, Italy and the U.K. With China you take things to another level. Labor is cheap... The supply lines are shorter... The manufacturers can grease things locally.

The incentives are high enough to drive healthy profits. They've got a few provinces (Shandong and Liaoning) with a FiT kicker and more will probably follow. I could see them being inverter constrained in 2012. This will lead to yet another supply chain shortage followed by a massive build out of inverter manufacturing capacity starting in the second half of this year. For about a year the inverter prices will climb up but once the new supply starts rolling in the inverter prices will be pressed down to 15 to 20 cents/Watt.

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